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Originally Posted by timbit
Skinner’s or any other UFA contract cannot be used as a comparable to any RFA contract, literally and figuratively. A RFA going to arbitration cannot use a UFA contract as a comparable
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going to arbitration, yes, however, ufa contracts ARE used as comparables during rfa negotiations that buy UFA years.
Matthew Tkachuk isn't going to be able to take Skinner's UFA contract into an arbitration hearing, but his agent will damn sure use it as a comparison for what a contract longer than 4 years should look like in terms of salary in years 5, 6,7,8.
Tkachuk has outscored Skinner in each of the last 2 years and finished with just 6 less goals than skinner this year. If Treliving wants a UFA year from Tkachuk, that UFA year number is going to start with a 9.
The Draisaitl deal for example is top end expensive because it buys all available UFA years.
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The closer a team gets to losing an currently owned but prospective UFA player, the more likely a premium will have to be paid by the team holding his rights.
Factor in the said asset (player) replacement cost , should the UFA walk, and the additional salary and premium to keep him starts to make sense.
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This is a result of Commitment Bias, the perception that making increasingly wrong decisions is preferable than altering course and perhaps suffering shorter term pain to avoid longer term pain. In the world of Buffalo GM tenures, Botterill has seen what's happened with Tim Murray and understands the lifespan of his GM tenure is going to be shorter than the outcome of any of these contracts. It's personally beneficial to not have Skinner leave via free agency, even though it may conflict with the long-term health of the organization.
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Moral of the story is get core player’s second and / or third contracts heading towards UFA done as early as possible and reduce team expense and exposure. The longer you wait, the more expensive it gets for the team to retain the player and/or replace him.
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I think the moral of the story is actually to have multiple courses of action prepared for a variety of results. The Sabres have been a disaster of long term planning and I think have illustrated the serious potential harm that can be done to a franchise with a wild approach to free agency.
Their trade history is absolutely bizarre, with no orientation of whether they are rebuilding or going for it. Hiring and firing Housley in a 2 year period and not making the playoffs since, brace for it, 2011, and not having won a series since 2007.
That fanbase is not going to know the difference between a team with skinner and without unless he's part of the winning formula in Buffalo which did not seem to manifest itself this season at all outside of an improbable series of games.