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Originally Posted by edslunch
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538's methodology is really cool, and it was one of the few models that correctly predicted the Raptors would prevail over Bucks. Unlike most statistical models, it attempts to take into account individual players and playing times (so for example, it's calculating the difference between 37 minutes of Durant, vs. a bunch more minutes for Bell, Jerebko, McKinnie, etc).
The Durant and Cousins injuries are the reason Toronto's favoured right now. With those guys in and playing full minutes, even the 538 model would expect the Warriors to be one of the greatest teams of all time.
A recent 538 chat showed that most of their writers are skeptical of the Raptors here.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ttle-too-much/