Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814
$9.5m buys you UFA Mark Stone for 8 years. It doesn't make sense to pay that money for an RFA at less than max term, even if you think he's better (and as of right now, Stone is better than Tkachuk).
The guy probably deserves more money than Nylander. He's got more points in fewer games and he's a good defensive player with size who's not done getting better. But he deserves tens or hundreds of thousands more. Not millions.
Matt Duchene is going to get $8.5-9.5M as a centre on the UFA market. Nobody has made a convincing argument why Tkachuk deserves UFA 1st line centre money when he's not a centre, not a 1st line player on his own team, and has one year out of three where he was ALMOST a PPG player.
Auston Matthews scored 40 goals as an 18 year old and followed that with 34 and 37. And plays centre. In Toronto. That's why he got $11.6M.
|
This is all well and good, but it still seems like both you and Deluxe are just completely missing the point. Sure, bring up guys like Stone, Duchene, Subban, Weber (???), but none of them are comparable. None of them make a lick of difference to what Tkachuk will or won’t get.
Yeah, 9ish gets you Stone or Duchene in UFA. Very cool. “Neat” even. 27 and 28 years old, respectively, and guys who are likely as good now as they will ever be.
Nobody that I know of has attached the 9.5 number to less than 8 years for Tkachuk. If they have, they’re out to lunch, fair enough. But we’re talking max here, and 9ish sounds very reasonable to take a player the caliber of Tkachuk (already at 21) right through his prime to 29 years old.
In 8 years, Stone (who has had a whopping 1 season over a point per game) will be 35. How good are players between 30 and 35 compared to players between 24 and 29? Who do you think is going to be better over the course of the next 8 years?
And Duchene, just like Tkachuk, a whopping ZERO seasons where he’s managed to hit a point per game, after how many years in the league? And he’s some high water mark? He’s 28, on his 3rd and possibly 4th team coming up here. What?
I get it. If you think Tkachuk is as good as he’ll ever be, 9.5 over 8 is a lot of money. Though, Stone and Duchene who statistically aren’t much better and certainly aren’t poised to get a whole lot better before they start getting a whole lot, are definitely “worth” 9.5.
9.5 over 8 is not about today, it’s about 3 years from now and beyond. How well did a bridge deal work out for Montreal with Subban? Seems like it blew up in their face. You sign Tkachuk for 9.5 over 8 now not because he’s worth 9.5 today, but because when the cap goes up and Tkachuk is better in 3 years, you’re paying a hell of a lot more for all of the years after that.
Matthews got 11.6 and not 9.5 because of the stats you mentioned. That’s why we’re not talking about Tkachuk at 11.6. Matthews also got 11.6 and not 13.6 because he signed for 5 years, not max term. I fully believe Tkachuk comes in between 7 and 8 on a 5 year deal. And I don’t think that’s necessarily bad.
Much like you haven’t been convinced that Tkachuk deserves 9.5 over 8, I haven’t been convinced otherwise. And bringing up older guys who aren’t much better, guys who signed 5+ years ago, or guys who signed 4-6 year contracts as evidence otherwise just isn’t compelling or close to relevant enough to matter.