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Originally Posted by Slava
good post. I agree that the AP takes votes from both parties, and that's part of their (AP) problem. As voters make their way in and think "I don't want to have the NDP/UCP in power" they will also not want to split that vote. It's anecdotal of course, but there are a lot of voters who see this as the one time in four years to get rid of the NDP, so they're less likely to risk splitting that anti-NDP vote around and having an NDP candidate win.
Some of those projections are interesting. A couple ridings that they have as "toss-up" are surprising. Mountainview strikes me as pretty solidly NDP, and I'm a little surprised about Varsity as leaning NDP. Calgary Currie is another interesting case.
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That's the real trouble with voting AP if one is being strategic about it, because without specialized riding by riding polling knowledge it's hard to know how a vote for the AP impacts the overall election. Again if the NDP or UCP outcome matters more to a voter than beefing up AP's raw vote then strategically they should vote their preference for government between the two front-running parties.
Mountain-view is interesting because it's a 3-4 way race. I think it's a riding that could be classified as being 60-70% 'progressive' but it could end up UCP because the Liberals, AP, and NDP are splitting all that vote. And yes in Calgary Currie it looks like an AP vote is helping the UCP, but in Calgary Varsity the AP vote is helping the NDP.