Quote:
Originally Posted by Cowboy89
This is an interesting component of the campaign, especially in Calgary. In some instances I think the AP is spoiling the UCP vote and in other instances it's spoiling the NDP vote.
For example in Calgary Foothills, the AP probably is taking from the UCP and making it easier for the NDP. I think Panda will cruise to victory there, but if you're running his campaign, your risk of losing to the NDP is bleeding votes to the Alberta party candidate, hence the letter to AB lawn sign owners. Obviously in Calgary - Elbow the AP is a factor and I think it's Schweitzer's UCP campaign that is guilty of doing what he's accusing Clark's campaign of doing. He'a trying to scare AP leaning voters into voting for him to avoid the NDP, even though I think the NDP is tracking 3rd in that race and it's actually him and Clark neck and neck. In Calgary-Klein it looks like the better Kara Levis does the better the UCP chances are as the votes are more fluid between NDP and AP there (338 had it likely NDP for a majority of the campaign until recent days where it shows leaning UCP, thanks in part to both better AP party polling and stronger UCP support in the riding).
http://alberta.338canada.com/districts/calgary.htm |
good post. I agree that the AP takes votes from both parties, and that's part of their (AP) problem. As voters make their way in and think "I don't want to have the NDP/UCP in power" they will also not want to split that vote. It's anecdotal of course, but there are a lot of voters who see this as the one time in four years to get rid of the NDP, so they're less likely to risk splitting that anti-NDP vote around and having an NDP candidate win.
Some of those projections are interesting. A couple ridings that they have as "toss-up" are surprising. Mountainview strikes me as pretty solidly NDP, and I'm a little surprised about Varsity as leaning NDP. Calgary Currie is another interesting case.