Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache
^ quick calculation. 80 series - difference between 59 percent actual and 52 percent expected is seven percent.
For convenience sake, call it ~5 out of 80, or one out of 16.
So on average, about once every two seasons, a hot team scores an upset.
Hardly a resounding and definitive ‘yes’
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That's a bit of an oversimplification though. All else being equal, an extra 7% to win is pretty significant in sports...especially when the betting sites have most favourites' odds between 50%-60%.
How much do you think a big ticket trade deadline piece like Mark Stone adds? Vegas' odds maybe improved around ~2% because of that trade?
Being hot definitely helps - probably even more than a major deadline deal. You can say 7% is nothing but when a lot of playoff series are a coin flip, it's not meaningless.