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Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache
^ quick calculation. 80 series - difference between 59 percent actual and 52 percent expected is seven percent.
For convenience sake, call it ~5 out of 80, or one out of 16.
So on average, about once every two seasons, a hot team scores an upset.
Hardly a resounding and definitive ‘yes’
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Anytime your expected winning percentage increases it matters and as stated in the case of a hot team vs a cold team the percentages are even higher. Did you read the article? There's more meat to it.
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One of the more intriguing analytics findings over the past decade only bolsters that theory. In 2015, TSN’s Travis Yost wrote about the merits of a team’s score-adjusted Fenwick in its final 25 regular season games leading up to the playoffs and its predictive power. At the time, nearly 70 percent of series were won by the team that was stronger in that single metric — over eight percent higher than using a team’s full-season goal differential. In that sense, playing well down the stretch — specifically a team’s process at 5-on-5 — mattered more than its full-season play.
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The more you read the more you see that it indeed matters. This is actually a positive for the Flames as 5 on 5 they were very good down the stretch and they were let down by a poor powerplay.