Quote:
Originally Posted by Kerplunk
Anytime a poll has the majority of it as being "online" I pretty much instantly doubt its accuracy.
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It is worth noting that, according to people who have it, it is apparently in line with the
paywalled Mainstreet daily polling data (with the last Mainstreet polling apparently
showing an NDP lead).
I'm not fully aware about how accurate Mainstreet is (
they apparently did a review and made significant changes to their techniques after bungling the Calgary municipal election, with "proof of concept" results made when they accurately predicted Ontario's provincial election)...using the previous tracking between the last election an this one,
they seem to be favouring the UCP a little when compared to similarly timed Abacus and Leger data while being less favouring of the UCP than Lethbridge College. But it could very well be a reasonable result and a realistic possibility. I think the probability of a close race being fact increases if we get more and more agencies reporting the same result.
On reddit, it sounds like the stats crunchers still have it in the UCP's favour with the
NDP needing to make gains in UCP Calgary strongholds to win the election.