[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

I was just doing some reviewing of the electoral math on 338 and I just noticed how 'bozo-eruption proof' Kenney's majority government poll position actually is.

Take a look at each region, Southern Alberta, Northern Alberta, Calgary, & Edmonton:

http://alberta.338canada.com/

44 Seats are needed for a majority. There are 19 seats in Southern Alberta, 22 in Northern Alberta, 26 in Calgary, & 20 in Edmonton.

There are only 2-3 seats they could realistically lose in Southern & Northern Alberta regions which gives them a minimum of 38 seats before even having to win anything inside Calgary or Edmonton:

http://alberta.338canada.com/districts/south.htm

http://alberta.338canada.com/districts/north.htm

Now take a look at Edmonton. Since the Education platform was announced the GSA issue has clearly cost them there as you can see the popular vote vs. the NDP diverge, but there's still two solidly UPC ridings (Edmonton South & Edmonton South West) that adds two seats bring the total up to 40:

http://alberta.338canada.com/districts/edmonton.htm

Now look at Calgary:

http://alberta.338canada.com/districts/calgary.htm

The popular vote stayed stable through the Education platform announcement and they are projecting 18 seats. Given that they have basically 40 in their back pocket going into Calgary, they only need 4-5 seats in Calgary to form a majority government. Of those ridings there are some very safe UCP seats. They could take a beating in the popular vote over the next 3 weeks, but their vote is so efficient and the rural ridings so gerrymandered relative to population that it would be highly difficult for the NDP to break through. If that was my intelligence, no wonder the Kenney camp didn't feel they needed to break with their grassroots on the GSA issue.

Interesting info. Thanks for posting.

That sets up an interesting potential scenario where Kenney loses Edmonton in a landslide, barely wins or perhaps even doesn’t in YYC, and still forms government. It would be a big problem for Alberta to have the government not clearly supported in either place.