[Dion]

Billions of dollars into the election campaign, Notley insists promises fit into a 2023 balanced budget

It’s hard to say if the NDP’s spending promises, with more inevitably to come, would prevent that 2023 slaying of the deficit from being realized, said University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe.

He said a bigger challenge in meeting that goal could be an overly optimistic energy royalties forecast the NDP is pegging at $12 billion a year by the early 2020s.

“I certainly expect an increase if prices don’t rise, but based on the National Energy Board’s projections, they’ll be $9 billion by 2023 … increased spending pressures will only increase reliance on royalties,” said Tombe.

“The government’s own forecast had been for $10 billion by that time.”

But he emphasized that the oil market’s notorious volatility could render all those forecasts moot.

But the NDP’s economic record shows it can’t be trusted to right Alberta’s fiscal ship and its campaign promises will only sink the province deeper in debt, said UCP MLA Ric McIver.

“On the ‘path to balance’ promise, the NDP has no credibility. In their 2015 campaign platform they promised that by 2019-20 there would be a $586-million surplus,” said McIver.

“In reality, we’re facing a $7.9-billion deficit for the year and are on track for an unprecedented $95 billion in debt.”

Tombe said the NDP itself believes in the power of tax incentives as seen with its subsidies directed at the petrochemical industry and other measures.

Plans to double that petrochemical incentive, said the economist, “do come at the cost of a higher budget deficit.”

While it may not be direct spending, they do appear in budget documents “in the form of lower royalties than would otherwise be the case,” added Tombe.

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...alanced-budget