I’m not sure if this is even much of a debate but both “sides” are presenting truths here.
It’s not corporate taxes exclusively to blame. It’s not an over the top regulatory burdening system that’s to blame. It’s not long timelines for projects exclusively to blame. It’s not even the pipeline egress issue exclusively to blame. But it’s the combination of everything plus consideration of a hostile political environment both (what appears) provincially but most certainly federally.
All the above combined with math. A good well in Canada is not the same as a good well in the large majority of international locations. I used to work for a large multinational and I can tell you that political risk / stability is actually given a factor and multiplied into geographic locations to help assist decision making. Canada used to have extremely low political risk. Combined with lesser(ish) results, and even with higher cost structures- Canada was still a decent place to do business in oil and gas. Canada has broad infrastructure, technical expertise, there were capital markets...
Today capital markets have dried up. This means juniors aren’t funded, aren’t exploring, and can’t easily be bought by mid sized or large companies. Infrastructure is a mess. Not just the obvious large inter-provincial pipelines with federal jurisdiction that are screwed for no real good reason. But because even intra-provincially... does anyone here know how hard it is to build a pipeline? It’s ####ing ridiculous! The amount of red tape, planning, bull#### that Alberta demands is insane and even when you DO get through all that heavy lifting it still takes the province now 6-10 months to get approval. That’s not acceptable to be competitive internationally. The AER needs to get #### moving faster. That’s just the bottom line. It’s these little things that matter to investment, but people don’t talk about a lot.
Every jurisdiction has their issues. But Canada’s have (obviously) become too much. It’s not that oil and gas is no longer a good investment. People make good returns. Look at Brent or WTI prices. People are making great money at those prices. And people are still making money in Canada too. It’s just way harder than it needs to be compared to other jurisdictions for lesser results.
Anyway the good news is that it’s believed that heavy oil will be priced and demanded for in the near future which should help Canada. Theoretically even though we can’t get it to market.
If Notley or Kenney has a campaign promise of things like; promise not to change royalties. Get the AER to move applications quicker and create some clearer rules in key instances. Be helpful to industry rather than hinder. But what happens? People can NIMBY projects and #### them up. There’s still uncertainty about what the government thinks (the dude they just put in charge of the AER? Wtf??). Oil and gas needs HELP. This is fairly basic.
Lastly it’s not just international companies leaving. Local companies are now trying to leave as well. Awesome.
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