Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunk
^ Yes, and here's the thing, we have total unanimity within our province that the transportation of our product is crucial. We don't necessarily have agreement of exactly the political tactics how to get there, but we also have limited ability provincially to force the issue. If there was ever a federal matter, this is it.
My worry a bit is if Kenney goes in and completely antagonizes Trudeau. If it seems apparent in the upcoming federal election that there is absolutely zero political upside in getting pipelines built, and only downside in places like BC, Quebec and Ontario where elections are decided, they'll just say screw it - we don't need Alberta. Come October, not even a Albertan in caucus anymore to bother with. Win the election, write off Trans Mountain and be done with it.
It'll feel damn good for a moment to give the F-U to Ottawa, but we could be royally screwed. That's a perfectly plausible scenario.
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At the end of the day. What's going to happen is probably that the Liberal Caucus will split on approving the pipeline construction. We know that the new head of the treasury board, and the environment minister are hard against any development.
I also firmly believe that if the government does approve this, its still a long way from shovels in the ground as the lawsuits are going to pile up no matter how much consultation is done. Various groups have already said their heading to court no matter the result.
So this will get tied up in court again. The pressure will be on the government to re do the assessment under Bills c-69 and C-48 as they are going to pass amended fairly soon.
Also as noted, I doubt that any of the Federal Liberal's in Alberta will win their seats back. So the decision becomes a political one.
If the Liberal's get back in, its just as likely that they will look at a bunch of lawsuits, the cost of doing a new assessment under the new rules and say, not worth the dollars and effort and kill transmountain or put it on indefinite hold and kick it down the road for someone else to deal with.
I will be pleasantly surprised if we see any actual construction before fall of 2020