Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
Probably the biggest misconception people have, IMO, is that sending Kenny to fight battles with Horgan and Trudeau is going to achieve more success than Notley's approach. People are going to respond with "well it can't get much worse," but at least those three are on amicable terms and there is an appetite on Trudeau and Notley's behalf to get shovels in the ground. My fear is that Kenny goes scorched-Earth and completely sets things back. Furthermore, getting into a B.C. vs. Alberta battle might even strengthen Horgan's popularity in B.C.
It's also my opinion that the main reason Horgan is fighting this as hard as he is is because the Greens hold the balance of power in BC and, after coming away empty-handed on Site C, LNG expansion, and electoral reform, the Greens really have only one reason to keep the current government propped up. If Horgan doesn't at least give the appearance that he's fighting this, then it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Greens and Liberals attempt to trigger an election. The trickier aspect of that is that the BC NDP are performing fairly well by most standards and the current leader of the BC Liberals has proven himself to be an completely out-of-touch gaffe machine, so it could end up returning an NDP majority.
I appreciate MBates' analysis of the potential for re-opening the constitution with a referendum, but even if that comes to pass, the amending formula is very clearly laid out and I'm hard-pressed to see how Alberta comes away with even a moral victory. There's even a chance that QC and FN groups come away from those discussions stronger than they did going in.
So the tl;dr of this is, be careful what you wish for and maybe keep your expectations realistic.
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I don't think Notley is on amicable terms with either of those guys. I don't think she ever was with Horgan and she was with Trudeau until he did nothing of consequence to fight BC's obstructionism after buying the pipeline. I think you hit the nail on the head with Horgan having to keep fighting this for the sake of his Government, but that proves the opposite of your point that all three being chummy will get this done. Horgan is feeling no downside for all the obstructionist anti-constitution crap he's pulling and that needs to change. It's clear that the amicable approach has not worked on our end of seeing a pipeline get built, it's clear Trudeau won't do anything unless he's forced to and Horgan's job as Premier depends on him fighting this until the end. Kenney is going to be more forceful at pushing pressure points and leverage which is the high risk high reward strategy but playing nice has gotten us nowhere, which is sad but the reality of the situation.
If Alberta cut off refined gasoline to the LM and raised gas prices to $3.00 do you think BCers would cast their ire on Horgan or Alberta? Honest question I'm curious.