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Originally Posted by Resolute 14
On the bolded: That's the exact argument NDP partisans are making on Reddit. Nothing is ever their fault. It's still all the PC's that are to blame.
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Yeah, I think you need to look at it on an issue by issue basis. While I agree that minimum wage should be higher (and I'm not even a true proponent of a living minimum wage, but it's unfortunately one of the few levers at our disposal unless we completely overhaul how we look at wages and COLA), it was poorly timed and rolled out rather foolishly. I have less issues with the royalty review because I think it would have been criticized no matter when it was done.
That said, I think the UCP, unless they go all slash and burn on the public sector, are going to reap the rewards of the NDP's investment in infrastructure, which was unfortunately playing catch-up for a lot of years of PC neglect (especially under Klein).
Probably the biggest misconception people have, IMO, is that sending Kenny to fight battles with Horgan and Trudeau is going to achieve more success than Notley's approach. People are going to respond with "well it can't get much worse," but at least those three are on amicable terms and there is an appetite on Trudeau and Notley's behalf to get shovels in the ground. My fear is that Kenny goes scorched-Earth and completely sets things back. Furthermore, getting into a B.C. vs. Alberta battle might even strengthen Horgan's popularity in B.C.
It's also my opinion that the main reason Horgan is fighting this as hard as he is is because the Greens hold the balance of power in BC and, after coming away empty-handed on Site C, LNG expansion, and electoral reform, the Greens really have only one reason to keep the current government propped up. If Horgan doesn't at least give the appearance that he's fighting this, then it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Greens and Liberals attempt to trigger an election. The trickier aspect of that is that the BC NDP are performing fairly well by most standards and the current leader of the BC Liberals has proven himself to be an completely out-of-touch gaffe machine, so it could end up returning an NDP majority.
I appreciate MBates' analysis of the potential for re-opening the constitution with a referendum, but even if that comes to pass, the amending formula is very clearly laid out and I'm hard-pressed to see how Alberta comes away with even a moral victory. There's even a chance that QC and FN groups come away from those discussions stronger than they did going in.
So the tl;dr of this is, be careful what you wish for and maybe keep your expectations realistic.