Polls are an absolute joke. They don't come anywhere close to a representative sample of the population. Popular data doesn't translate very well down to the riding level.
Until 2015, being a center to left leaning Albertan felt like an exercise of absolute futility. It's hard to forecast how many previously discouraged progressive voters could feel energized by feeling their vote might actually now matter, as well as concern for Trump/Ford style idiocy.
Whatever the outcome this spring, the greatest hope for the future is that the NDP and Liberals realize that association with their federal counterpoints is far more harmful than beneficial in Alberta. UCP has shown the roadmap for how to unite and re-brand two existing parties (and revealed a few landmines to watch out for in the process).
CAQ worked in Quebec, so in jest I suggest PAP - Progressive Alberta Party. Purple. If Notley doesn't want another go on the merry-go-round, I know a guy who looks good in Purple and will be available for a new challenge in 2021.
Based on 2015 results, a united progressive party would be very likely to hold:
21 Edmonton seats.
2 in Lethbridge
~6 Calgary seats look very likely to vote center-left
22 rural ridings are pretty close to a conservative lock
Leaving a battleground of 16 small city/rural ridings and 20 Calgary seats (UCP would likely hold the advantage in many of these, but not insurmountably)
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