Here is the rule.
Quote:
Handling the ball involves a deliberate act of a player making contact with the
ball with the hand or arm.
The following must be considered:
• the movement of the hand towards the ball (not the ball towards the hand)
• the distance between the opponent and the ball (unexpected ball)
• the position of the hand does not necessarily mean that there is an offence
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Jumping plays a role because it is what facilitates there being movement of the hand towards the ball. It's what makes his arm move into the path of the ball, making it not a ball to hand scenario.
There is actually nothing about "natural hand position" in the rule. The rule book was even updated to show that "the position of the hand does not necessarily mean that there is an offence", it's all about movement, and if the ref feels like it was ball to hand or hand to ball.
Plus in this case it was an expected ball, and not an unexpected ball, hence him jumping to block the expected shot. That also plays a role.
I think the only argument is that it wasn't a deliberate hand ball. Player deliberately went to block the shot, but he didn't deliberately try to block it with his hand. That is a crazy fine line to walk and why it's a 50/50 call.