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Old 03-03-2019, 02:44 PM   #1504
Enoch Root
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Join Date: May 2012
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 868904 View Post
The thing is the team, in particular the defense likes Smiths ability to move the puck. If Smith screws up, it’s not their fault it’s his, and his puck moving helps them out too. The team plays differently with Smith then with BSD. They seem to give up less shots with smith in net because he kills a lot of opposition forechecks. The team gets hemmed in more with BSD because he doesn’t move the puck out as much but he’s been better at actually stopping the puck.
Do they?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers View Post
I understand where this belief would come from, but it’s simply not true.

Smith: 34 games / 894 shots against = 26.29 shots per game.

Rittich: 36 games / 966 shots against = 26.83 shots per game.

Negligible.
As Resolute says...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14 View Post
Best to do it as a per-60 stat.

When Rittich is in net, the Flames have given up 29.41 shots per 60 minutes.

When Smith is in net, it's 27.80.

Even if we could attribute a reduction of 1.5 shots per game to Smith's stickhandling relative to Rittich's, it's not worth it. Not when he's that mentally weak.
However, we also need to take into account quality of competition...

Rittich has given up more shots per 60, but he also plays against tougher competition. If we factor in the expected shots of their opponents, we get the following:

Rittich: 32.45 shots per 60
Smith.: 31.32 shots per 60

In other words, based on the quality of competition (as measured by the shots they generate per game), we would expect Rittich to face 1.1 shots per game more than Smith, all else being equal.

Rittich has faced 1.6 shots per game more. Is 0.5 shots per game significant?

I would argue that 0.5 shots per game is about 1 goal every 20 games or so. How many goals is Smith giving up? Is it worth it?

I very much doubt it.
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