Quote:
Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium
I am getting a dead link to that tweet.
Pakistan is in a difficult situation. While the ISI provides support to JeM with varying degrees of nuance, it is the Saudis and UAE that actually finances them and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). The purpose of JeM and LeT is to perform dastardly acts in Iran (which, as an aside, is a reason why Pakistan has F-16s). India's problem is that these maniacs view India-occupied Kashmir as a suitable model to implement their brand of Sunni craziness. Now, India doesn't exactly treat the Kashmiris very well which allows JeM to make some headway in Kashmir. So, India isn't some innocent player in all of this.
You mention Afghanistan/USA and it perfectly highlights the usual American problem of being blinded by the tactical light so that they can't see the strategic picture. That is, they have to own up to their role in this part of Asia since 9/11 because they provided a large degree of "protection"/cover to Pakistan in order to facilitate the forever war in Afghanistan.
Fast forward to today and one of the myriad of geopolitical complexities here is that the USA is now relying upon Pakistan to reach a peace deal with the Taliban so that the USA can get out of Afghanistan. Thus, Pakistan assumes (probably correctly) that the USA won't pressure Pakistan on harbouring JeM and LeT. As further evidence in support, the USA and Saudi Arabia are set to bolster Pakistan with a $20 billion IMF loan. Call it a bribe I suppose, but USA needs Pakistan right now and Pakistan needs money. USA also does not want Pakistan drifting towards China.
Can India attack Pakistan with ground forces? That's certainly open to debate isn't it. On paper, they most certainly can. In reality, though, much of their conventional advantage has to guard against China. India also suffers from an ammunition shortage; I'm not certain how long they could maintain any attack.
What really looms over their head, though, is that Pakistan does not subscribe to the "no first use" nuclear strike. Remember, too, that the Pakistani military controls the nukes.
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Thanks for the post, I'm the first to admit, I'm not super strong on the politics of that area.
The link seems to have vanished, which is strange.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/pakist...hmir-1.5040386
Two Pakistan soldiers killed in a border scrimmage.
I should clarify on my whole ground force invasion. What that usually means in this day and age is specialized or special forces insertions. I don't see a large scale invasion happening between two nuclear armed states. The only way that works is if you find a way to remove that nuclear threat.
The nuclear programs in Pakistan and India are always worrying me. And your right Pakistan has no no first rule language in their standard procedures.
I don't know what the firing process is, but the question I would pose to you when you say that the nukes are under Pakistan military control is this. Is there no political over sight over the release of nuclear weapons, because that to me seems very strange and could lead to all kinds of forms of nuclear blackmail.