Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
Interesting development, and I'm not sure its a good one as Pakistan admits an open line of communication with Jaish-e-Mohammed
https://twitter.com/user/status/J1101907884563197954
A I can't see India believing this at all. B a government seemingly working with a group that operates in your country is going to lead to a not good result.
If we remember back to Afghanistan, the Taliban admitted to communications with Bin-Laden's group that was hiding there, and the American's demanded that they hand him over, when they refused the American's sent in the military.
Could this lead to a ground invasion to go after the camps? Maybe not, but its suddenly something that's a possibility |
I am getting a dead link to that tweet.
Pakistan is in a difficult situation. While the ISI provides support to JeM with varying degrees of nuance, it is the Saudis and UAE that actually finances them and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). The purpose of JeM and LeT is to perform dastardly acts in Iran (which, as an aside, is a reason why Pakistan has F-16s). India's problem is that these maniacs view India-occupied Kashmir as a suitable model to implement their brand of Sunni craziness. Now, India doesn't exactly treat the Kashmiris very well which allows JeM to make some headway in Kashmir. So, India isn't some innocent player in all of this.
You mention Afghanistan/USA and it perfectly highlights the usual American problem of being blinded by the tactical light so that they can't see the strategic picture. That is, they have to own up to their role in this part of Asia since 9/11 because they provided a large degree of "protection"/cover to Pakistan in order to facilitate the forever war in Afghanistan.
Fast forward to today and one of the myriad of geopolitical complexities here is that the USA is now relying upon Pakistan to reach a peace deal with the Taliban so that the USA can get out of Afghanistan. Thus, Pakistan assumes (probably correctly) that the USA won't pressure Pakistan on harbouring JeM and LeT. As further evidence in support, the USA and Saudi Arabia are set to bolster Pakistan with a $20 billion IMF loan. Call it a bribe I suppose, but USA needs Pakistan right now and Pakistan needs money. USA also does not want Pakistan drifting towards China.
Can India attack Pakistan with ground forces? That's certainly open to debate isn't it. On paper, they most certainly can. In reality, though, much of their conventional advantage has to guard against China. India also suffers from an ammunition shortage; I'm not certain how long they could maintain any attack.
What really looms over their head, though, is that Pakistan does not subscribe to the "no first use" nuclear strike. Remember, too, that the Pakistani military controls the nukes.