Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
xSV% and GSAA take into account the quality of shot faced in the most objective fashion you're going to find.
So based on that the answer to your question is pretty easy ...
How and why? He's not playing as good as he was.
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But that explanation is not adequate for me.
XSv% is the one based on danger tiers, right?
There is no stat that can actually measure shot quality. The best available metrics are a high level probability of being a quality shot, based on the situation where it originated. And with nothing whatsoever to do with the shot that actually gets taken.
A Typical Stamkos one timer is I believe medium danger, given where it comes from and what happened prior (correct me if I’m wrong). If he drills it in to the logo, it’s a save. If he puts it top corner, it’s often in.
There is absolutely nothing being measured and used that classifies a shot based on whether the shooter puts it where he wants, or not.
For the stats to work, you need enough data so that this all works out in the wash.
It’s just that any conclusions being drawn from a statistical model needs context
I still look at 6 goals on 600 shots constituting a contribution of .010 on sv%, and wondering what Tampa goals the goalie “should have”.