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DeluxeMoustache · 02-13-2019, 10:20 AM

Well, that is simply a spreadsheet take. (2 posts up) No offense.

Those statistics come out of grouping a very large number of shots based on some criteria, right? What they don’t factor in is the most important thing.

Look, if Stamkos gets the same pass in the same place, and takes a one timer, where does that shot go? In to the goalie’s logo? High and wide? Off the post? Top corner?

You are dealing with a statistically insignificant number of shots of a certain type in a game.

Rittich should stop perhaps 91 percent of shots from that general category. But Stamkos’s one timer is not reflective of the mean shot out of that category. Not even close.

Nor are the other shots I described. Your model ignores differentiating between likelihood of scoring based on shot placement.

Say you could measure enough to create a category of shots that are perfectly placed, that a goalie has to move to save, that arrives more quickly than human reflexes allow, and is therefore physically unstoppable? I wonder what the expected save percentage on that would be,

02-13-2019, 10:20 AM	#23
DeluxeMoustache Moustache Join Date: Mar 2010 Exp:	Well, that is simply a spreadsheet take. (2 posts up) No offense. Those statistics come out of grouping a very large number of shots based on some criteria, right? What they don’t factor in is the most important thing. Look, if Stamkos gets the same pass in the same place, and takes a one timer, where does that shot go? In to the goalie’s logo? High and wide? Off the post? Top corner? You are dealing with a statistically insignificant number of shots of a certain type in a game. Rittich should stop perhaps 91 percent of shots from that general category. But Stamkos’s one timer is not reflective of the mean shot out of that category. Not even close. Nor are the other shots I described. Your model ignores differentiating between likelihood of scoring based on shot placement. Say you could measure enough to create a category of shots that are perfectly placed, that a goalie has to move to save, that arrives more quickly than human reflexes allow, and is therefore physically unstoppable? I wonder what the expected save percentage on that would be, Last edited by DeluxeMoustache; 02-13-2019 at 10:23 AM.