Quote:
Originally Posted by blankall
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Really the teaser didn't look bad outside of the Genie. And that probably will still be huge internationally in other markets and think it will still do well domestically as long as the full trailer looks good.
People had the same concerns about Beauty and the Beast when the first teaser trailer for that movie came out...it did $1.2B worldwide.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Locke
I'd agree with you normally, but most of those films are just a license to print money.
The Generation that saw Aladdin, Dumbo and The Lion King as kids now have their own kids and are going to eat those films alive.
Star Wars is almost always a Home Run regardless of whether the movie is any good or not and I think Captain Marvel and End Game are going to surprise the hell out of people.
Disney is going swimming in their Scrooge McDuckian vault of cash this year.
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Yeah looking at it more closely and $8B is probably conservative for Disney this year.
As you mentioned Toy Story, Aladdin, and Lion King will be a licence to print money due to nostalgia and them being some of the most popular Disney franchises ever. Even Dumbo which I am concerned by the release date could overachieve because of the trailer looking really good, and Tim Burton having a pretty good following.
Plus I actually didn't realize how well Alice in Wonderland, Beauty and the Beast, Maleficent and Jungle Book live action movies had performed either, for some reason thought they were a disappointment but they all did at least $800M worldwide.
If Dumbo, Lion King, and Aladdin can perform to expectations of the previous live action remakes then Disney probably has a shot at $10B worldwide box office for movies released in 2019.
Looking at the closest proxy for each movie that's releasing this year:
Captain Marvel > Ant Man & Wasp - $700M
Dumbo > Tim Burton's Alice in Wonderland - $1000M
Avengers > Infinity War - $2000M
Aladdin > Beauty & The Beast - $1200M
Toy Story 4 > Toy Story 3 - $1100M
Lion King > Beauty and the Beast - $1200M
Artemis Fowl > Tomorrowland - $200M
Frozen 2 > Frozen - $1300M
Star Wars 9 > Last Jedi - $1300M
That's $10B right there and those totals probably aren't that aggressive.