[mrkajz44]

Alright - I've been able to do a pretty good re-read and will give my views overall:

DropIt - The vote on Bonded is too strong evidence for me to think he is Oilers - I have him sitting at Flames fan for now

Scornfire - Pretty much the same as DropIt - the vote on Bonded is too strong evidence for me to think he is Oilers. DropIt and Scornfire were votes 5 and 6 against Bonded - I just can't see Oilers making either of these moves

Puxlut - I'm in the middle here. Does seem to try and drive conversation, but sometimes I feel like the analysis on her own isn't great. Likes to let others drive, but this is consistent with prior games. She was also a vote on Bonded and expressed willingness to vote GGG but for hammer. I'm leaning Flames fan here

Winnipeg - The only thing I can really glean here is he seems genuine in his posts. One could argue his games hasn't been great strategically (which might also be said of my play), but the posts just ring true to me and feels like a Flames fan doing their best to help. I don't love his votes against Scornfire since I think Scorn is essentially Flames confirmed due to the Bonded vote, and his other votes have been against Flames fan. The flip-flop on GGG appears genuine and was a vote against the Oilers. He's a bit of a toss up, but I lean Flames fan again

Devo & HG - I'm lumping these two together as I'm getting the same vibe from them. My re-read of Day 2 gets my spidey senses tingling. Both Devo and HG seem to be attacking GGG and getting the votes going his way, which makes them seem very Flames fan.

However, I have a theory - hear me out on this. Imagine you are Oilers and on day 1 you lose a close vote with one of your own being voted out. There are 6 likely Flames fans on the Bonded vote, so their places to hide suddenly are much smaller. (this still assumes zero Oilers voted against Bonded). They hatch a plan with the idea that one of them goes after the other to try and build a wall between them. Then the votes suddenly start coming down on one of them. They decide on Plan A and B. Plan A was to do the mod reveal and hope to save themselves, but Plan B was the long game. They let another Oiler fall, but in doing so establish the other as a likely Flames fan. Who would suspect a player that started the banning of the second Oiler in 2 nights? The rest of the Flames fans then bicker between each other and they help drive the conversation each day against one of them. It's a lying around type game in plain sight.

HG and Devo both sort of fall into this theory. Their only votes for a banning versus an Oiler was GGG, and the rest of their votes sit with mostly unknown players (only Devo has one vote against confirmed Flames fan Crazy - all the rest of their votes are against players still in the game). It's a great strategy - the Oiler can point at other Flames fan's votes and say "look! they votes against confirmed Flames fans!" while their own vote sits against unknown players. By controlling who is banned in the night, they can keep around players they voted for and stay neutral.

So long winded for both these players, but I have my doubts with them. I just can't really pry them apart. If I had to decide, Devo seems to drive more and HG seems to wait just a bit more, making him feel more Oiler to me. His whole "are we letting GGG off?" post could be brilliant as this has convinced me for a while that he is Flames fan.