I posted this in the Big Save Dave thread a few weeks ago; seems relevant at the moment:
Quote:
Off the top of my head, my suspicion was that not many recent cup winning teams had their starting goalies win all 16 playoff games. Turns out I was wrong, but I also looked at whether they were the defacto #1 for that whole season or not (lower GP might also have been due to injury)
Playoff wins by starting goalies in cup winning seasons: (reg season GS that year)
Holtby: 16 (54)
Murray: 7 in 2017 (47), 15 in 2016 (13)
Crawford: 13 in 2015 (57), 16 in 2013 (28)
Quick: 16 & 16 (68, 49 in '15 - injury?)
Thomas: 16 (55)
Niemi: 16 (35)
Fleury: 16 in 2009 [and 9 in 2017] (61 - 2008 + 34 & 46 in '17 and '18)
Osgood: 14 (40)
Giguere: 13 (56 GP - no GS stat on hockey ref before this year)
Ward: 15 (28 GP)
Khabibulin: 16 (55 GP)
Looking at the times 'elite workhorse ' goalies got to the finals, their GS was lower than typical:
in '12 when Brodeur started only 59 that year (he was 39 yo...)
Lundqvist started 62 in '14
Luongo 60 in '11.
Rask (34 - lockout year), Bishop (60), Jones (65), Rinne (59), Fleury (46).
In most cases, these guys have started 65+ in other seasons, yet their teams didn't achieve the same levels in those years. Of course you can't definitively say it's causation and not just coincidental correlation, but the evidence is growing that it's the former.
Conclusion: Riding one goalie for 60+ starts in a season is unlikely to end with him raising the cup over his head. Even if you have a bonafide #1, their best playoff runs come when their reg season GS were kept under control. You rarely need your backup to win more than 1-2 playoff games, but you want them to take at least 25 reg season starts.
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Right now we have the privilege to piss away some trivial points in the middle of the season, which is more likely to help than hinder in late May. The worst case scenario might be losing a game 7 on the road. Then again, we might lose a game 7 at home with a tired goalie...