[mrkajz44]

So I'm thinking more about the votes and here's what I've got. Day 1 final votes:

Votes Scornfire (4): Hockeyguy15, SebC, devo22, bizaro86
Votes agulati (5): Winnipegfan, mrkajz44, Bonded, GGG, crazy_eoj
Votes Bonded (6): dissentowner, agulati, Fuzz, Puxlut, DropIt, Scornfire

With the votes so close, I still think that none of the voters for Bonded were Oilers - if even one of them were on Bonded, they could have flipped to agulati and saved Bonded. I highly doubt they decided a good strategy on Day 1 was to vote out one of their to cover their tracks. The only way this doesn't hold is if agulati was Oiler too (so moving off Bonded to agulati doesn't really accomplish anything), but GGG and Bonded are both voting for agulati, so that makes no sense.

Day 2 votes stacked in this order: HG, SebC (comes off later and stays off), Fuzz, Winnipeg (off and on right at the end), dissentowner, devo (comes off later and then back on shortly after), Crazy, GGG

There was some jockeying there close to the end, but that is the order. Winnipeg was the 4th vote and that's when I consider the GGG train really moving. He comes off and on right at the end with the mod reveal (off prior to Fuzz's reveal), so I read this as a Flames fan second guessing his initial decision.

SebC's move off seems a bit off to me. GGG and SebC have been playing the game of not engaging each other much, which feels off. SebC dropped the "how did you know my vote was wrong" comment and HG started the vote on GGG shortly afterwards. I think Seb saw this an opportunity to vote against his teammate early in the day when things didn't look bad to try and hide tracks later as they knew having only two Oilers after day 1 would probably mean a win would come down to the wire. Once the train started rolling, he got off and went to Crazy (which aligns with GGGs vote).

Coupling this with the fact that he did not align with GGG and Bonded in the first vote, I'm leaning Seb as the third Oiler. I don't think all three Oilers would have voted the same way on Day 1. I think one of them was on Scorefire and they couldn't move at the end of the day for two reasons:

1) The move from Scornfire to agualti would have caused a tie and could have resulted in a no ban - that would have been suicide for whomever moved
2) The move from Scornfire to agulati would also have signaled that Bonded was being protected, essentially calling out a second Oiler

As such, they decided as a group to sacrifice Bonded as one Oiler down was better than 2.

Summary: I think the last Oiler voted for Scornfire on Day 1 to avoid outing two Oilers rather than just get one banned. Of those 4, SebC's pull off GGG and voting in alignment with him on Day makes me think he's the most likely one.