Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
One way to test this it to compare how often the favorite is upset, in each of the major sports?
But, with MLB, NHL and NBA having best of 7 series in the playoffs, that reduces luck.
https://www.bettingwell.com/sports-b...-underdogs-win
https://www.oddsshark.com/sports-bet...win-most-often
Here’s the win percentage of underdogs for the last five full regular seasons of the NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB:
LeagueUnderdog Win %
National Football League32.60%
National Basketball Association30.26%
National Hockey League40.08%
Major League Baseball42.06% |
That literally has nothing to do with it. An interception is dropped. A fumble bounces one way instead of the other. A player lines up offside. A call is missed on a TD. Who has the ball last (this one becoming arguably the most crucial element in football)? A coin toss to determine who gets the ball. Because football is purely situational and not non-stop play like other sports, individual plays determine the outcome, and those individual plays in football are subject to far more randomness or luck than other sports.
One score games are a perfect example. One year a team might go 8-2 in those games, and play at the same level the following year but go 5-5. Because a few little things changed. Randomness....luck...that's football. Betting line upsets are a pretty poor determiner of how random or lucky things are. They mostly tell you how competitive the leagues are.