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powderjunkie · 12-21-2018, 01:01 PM

The eventual outcome may be binary (as is the case with just about anything), but there are plenty of scenarios C, D, E, F, etc.. This would be better shown with a flow chart, but here's a quick and dirty of what needs to happen before we get to EE's binary 0 option.

Scenario C - city doesn't move off of their last offer; CSEC decides to:
i. build now with offer
ii. continue to own team, try again in ~3 years
iii. try to sell team (because the league won't let them move to option iv before this):
a) if they don't get the value they want, reconsider options i. & ii. & maybe iv.
b) if they get the value they want, they sell team, and new ownership considers i. & ii. & iv.

iv. attempt to move team
a) with a tangible threat of team moving, city's offer improves (revert to step 0)
b) no improvement of city offer, NHL BOG refuses move based on sound business reasons (revert to i. or ii. or iii.)
c) no improvement of city offer, NHL BOG approves move against general business interests, but in order to make a statement that they are will continue to extort taxpayers as necessary.

Option iv-c is the only one we need to worry about. But there are a lot of things that make it highly unlikely. Which teams want new buildings soon, and how powerful are there owners? Do all of the owners want to dilute the value of the league's day to day operations by several million per year to help a few owners extort a few extra tens of millions?

It's worth noting that several powerful US owners don't really have a stake in the arena scam, as they are tenants. Assuming the Leafs are still owned by the media consortium, are they more interested in selling their annual TV product, or trying to get money when they want a new ACC (not going to be the same executives at that point; right now, skydome is the building to be replaced more urgently)? What is the average age of league owners? How many expect to want another building in their lifetime? I suppose they may want to set the stage for their kids to extort. Do the Oilers, Canucks, or Jets owners actually want us to move (a few reasons yes, a few reasons no)?

The moving threat is 99.99% hollow. If the stakes are as low as living for ~10 years without an NHL franchise, I'm more than willing to take the bet.

12-21-2018, 01:01 PM	#948
powderjunkie Franchise Player Join Date: Dec 2011 Exp:	The eventual outcome may be binary (as is the case with just about anything), but there are plenty of scenarios C, D, E, F, etc.. This would be better shown with a flow chart, but here's a quick and dirty of what needs to happen before we get to EE's binary 0 option. Scenario C - city doesn't move off of their last offer; CSEC decides to: i. build now with offer ii. continue to own team, try again in ~3 years iii. try to sell team (because the league won't let them move to option iv before this): a) if they don't get the value they want, reconsider options i. & ii. & maybe iv. b) if they get the value they want, they sell team, and new ownership considers i. & ii. & iv. iv. attempt to move team a) with a tangible threat of team moving, city's offer improves (revert to step 0) b) no improvement of city offer, NHL BOG refuses move based on sound business reasons (revert to i. or ii. or iii.) c) no improvement of city offer, NHL BOG approves move against general business interests, but in order to make a statement that they are will continue to extort taxpayers as necessary. Option iv-c is the only one we need to worry about. But there are a lot of things that make it highly unlikely. Which teams want new buildings soon, and how powerful are there owners? Do all of the owners want to dilute the value of the league's day to day operations by several million per year to help a few owners extort a few extra tens of millions? It's worth noting that several powerful US owners don't really have a stake in the arena scam, as they are tenants. Assuming the Leafs are still owned by the media consortium, are they more interested in selling their annual TV product, or trying to get money when they want a new ACC (not going to be the same executives at that point; right now, skydome is the building to be replaced more urgently)? What is the average age of league owners? How many expect to want another building in their lifetime? I suppose they may want to set the stage for their kids to extort. Do the Oilers, Canucks, or Jets owners actually want us to move (a few reasons yes, a few reasons no)? The moving threat is 99.99% hollow. If the stakes are as low as living for ~10 years without an NHL franchise, I'm more than willing to take the bet.