Quote:
Originally Posted by JackIsBack
Great analysis - one thing that stands out is PDO (luck)... and under McLellan (which has a bigger sample size) - it is well under 1 (bad luck) and well above 1 with Hitchcock (good luck).... if you average these numbers together, you basically get 1 (not weighted by games). Remembering that these luck numbers are all sunk costs (stealing an accounting term) - which means, that they have no bearing on what future PDO number the Oilers will obtain, they have a statistically probability of getting 1 just based on how the number is calculated. So, everyone is right, when the luck runs out at the blackjack table for the Oilers here, so will this winning streak, and since there is a greater spread away from 1 on this latest winning streak, they should fall back down to just below 500 (right where we want them to be - 9th or 10th in the division).
Great Stuff!
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This is the E=NG thread so I’ll agree with your outcome, but I hate the notion that PDO is a measure of luck. Is Riddick luckier than Smith because he has a higher save % or just better? Are players with consistently high shooting % lucky or just really good?
Actually I generally just dislike PDO as a stat. But anyway, E=NG!