Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
What amazes me is how media get caught up in results to the point that they seem to ignore how they're being generated.
Articles on the Hitch effect, being contenders now when the team has really been out played of late and is heading for a correction.
Under McLellan
Shot attempts 50.2%
Shots 50.9%
Scoring Chances 50.2%
High Danger Chances 51.1%
Shooting % 6.6%
Save % .919
PDO .985
Under Hitchcock
Shot attempts 48.7%
Shots 49.4%
Scoring Chances 45.3%
High Danger Chances 41.0%
Shooting % 8.9%
Save % .939
PDO 1.028
They cant' continue to play this way and win. Skid is coming ... maybe for Xmas!
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Great analysis - one thing that stands out is PDO (luck)... and under McLellan (which has a bigger sample size) - it is well under 1 (bad luck) and well above 1 with Hitchcock (good luck).... if you average these numbers together, you basically get 1 (not weighted by games). Remembering that these luck numbers are all sunk costs (stealing an accounting term) - which means, that they have no bearing on what future PDO number the Oilers will obtain, they have a statistically probability of getting 1 just based on how the number is calculated. So, everyone is right, when the luck runs out at the blackjack table for the Oilers here, so will this winning streak, and since there is a greater spread away from 1 on this latest winning streak, they should fall back down to just below 500 (right where we want them to be - 9th or 10th in the division).
Great Stuff!