Quote:
Originally Posted by Aarongavey
Other examples would be
Rick Nash - Shooting percentage before the age of 31 - 13%
After 31 - 7.2%
Patrick Sharp - Shooting percentage before age of 31 - 12.3%
After 31 - 8.2%
Jason Pominville - Shooting Percentage before 31 - 11.8%
After 31 - 8% (although he has had a resurgence this year)
I think it would be reasonable to assume for the life of the contract that Neal has something closer to a 7%-8% shooting percentage based on what happens to a lot of guys after they hit 31 , which if he accomplished that this year based on the number of shots he has taken in the first 29 games he would have 14-16 goals this year (assuming he shoots at around 9.5% the rest of the year). He is probably a 13-17 goal guy for the first couple years of the contract and then a bit of a drop to an 8-10 goal guy for the final year or two.
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The common thread in the drop off in shooting % might be line mates. Neal and many of these players were 1st or 2nd line players at one point, then demoted to 3rd line. Losing PP time could also be an issue. Playing with Ryan isn't exactly the recipe for getting setup for scoring chances.