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Originally Posted by Aarongavey
Who is angry or losing their mind? I have not seen those posts.
I should have put my post in green if the dripping sarcasm was not apparent. Think of the logistical challenge of Neal paying everyone's mortgage payment who defends him on here to start with.
But similar to how after 30 games I can make a pretty confident prediction that BT signed Lindholm to a great contract and he is going to be a 65 point a year guy minimum for the duration of his contract and be happy about that, I can be pretty sure that Neal is overpaid and will almost certainly never score the 100 goals over the lifetime of that contract that is the minimum needed to justify a 5.75 million dollar signing for a guy who does not kill penalties and is average defensively and be disappointed about that. I mean it is not like the Flames signed a modern day Jere Lehtinen to a 5.75 million dollar contract. They signed a guy whose predominant role is to score goals.
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And you can be sure on those things if you wish.
I look at a guy that has a career 11.8% shooting percentage shooting 4% through almost a third of a season as a little unlikely to continue. If pucks were going in at his usual rate he's have 8 or 9 now and this wouldn't be a concern.
So over the summer he's lost what was once a consistent year to year ability to shoot the puck? I don't know if I'm ready to just assume that.
I looked at last season for forwards and shooting percentage ... 4% is replacement level or 13th forward shooting ability.
So yeah it hasn't looked good, but to assume this body of work is the season and that's it is a pretty bleak way of looking at averages, especially with a player that has had a pretty good run of consistency.
This happens every year both in the high and low variety.
Chiasson is shooting 27%, that won't last. Hell Troy Brouwer is shooting 20% this year.
Things will normalize and Neal will move back to the 8-9% mark by the end of the season. At his shot/game rate that should settle into about 16 goals. The start is making his 20 goal season run a bit of a stretch, but things won't stay as bleak as they are.