Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
With Hamilton I broke the events up and got away from percentages because he puts everything on net and greatly affects his own corsi.
So what I was looking at was shot attempts against per 60 minutes of ice time ... which boils down to what he and his partner allow when on the ice five on five.
Those are counted by an independent source that does the same for all teams (players) so it's at least objective, or flawed equally for everyone.
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No doubt they are objective. But that wasn't the point at all.
My point was with respect to statistics, and how we determine their validity. I am pretty sure that you, as a trader, are very familiar with statistics (as am I).
It is not enough to simply look at two numbers and say: this guy's shot attempts per 60 are better than that guys, therefore he is doing something better.
With stats, we have to show the robustness or validity of the number, relative to simple chance (whether that be a t-stat, z score, or whatever applies).
Until we know that, we can not draw any conclusions whatsoever from the stated number. If one player's score is 50% and the other player's score is 55%, but the stdev of those numbers is 8%, then the stat would fail the null hypothesis test, and we could not determine at all if it was anything other than random noise.
That is my point, and I have never seen anyone post any support or reference for the numbers in question. It takes a lot of data to get past the random noise test - especially, like with hockey, where there are so many other variables at play at the same time.