From a Flames perspective, IMO the key factor is how our D corps develops. How do Hanifin, Valimaki, Andersson, and Kylington develop over the next 3 years? What do we do with Brodie and Hamonic when their current contracts expire? How good will Giordano be when he's 39? It could come down to our 4th best D-man vs. Backlund for a protection spot.
One really interesting wrinkle in this is Vegas being exempt from the draft. If a team feels Seattle isn't giving them a fair shake in pre-draft trade negotiations they'll have the additional option of trading draft-eligible players to Vegas for exempt players/draft picks. For example, if we've got 4 D we want to protect (say: Hanifin, Valimaki, Hamonic, Brodie) we'll have the option to trade Brodie to Vegas for a 1st and protect 7F 3D and leave Seattle with nothing.
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