Update on Team Metrics vs Standings (Differentials)
Disclaimer: Not suggesting the metrics are more important than the standings. Not suggesting every team with good metrics will eventually win. Not suggesting every team with bad metrics will eventually lose. Just an interesting look at where teams are either hinting that change could be coming or where the system of analytics is breaking down.
Code:
Team Rk Stats Diff
New Jersey Devils 29 9 20
Philadelphia Flyers 27 8 19
Carolina Hurricanes 20 4 16
Vegas Golden Knights 15 1 14
San Jose Sharks 16 3 13
Pittsburgh Penguins 24 11 13
Florida Panthers 25 12 13
Los Angeles Kings 31 19 12
St Louis Blues 30 22 8
Minnesota Wild 12 5 7
Montreal Canadiens 14 7 7
Chicago Blackhawks 28 21 7
Edmonton Oilers 22 18 4
Calgary Flames 7 6 1
Tampa Bay Lightning 1 2 -1
Arizona Coyotes 19 20 -1
Vancouver Canucks 26 27 -1
Boston Bruins 11 13 -2
Columbus Blue Jackets 13 16 -3
Nashville Predators 3 10 -7
New York Islanders 17 24 -7
Ottawa Senators 23 30 -7
Detroit Red Wings 21 29 -8
Colorado Avalanche 5 14 -9
Winnipeg Jets 6 15 -9
New York Rangers 18 28 -10
Dallas Stars 10 23 -13
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 17 -15
Washington Capitals 9 25 -16
Buffalo Sabres 4 26 -22
Anaheim Ducks 8 31 -23
My picks:
Teams Due to Fall:
1. Buffalo - sliding now, won ten in a row but only three in regulation. 22 spot disparity.
2. Ducks - riding the goalie far too much and he's injury prone. Ducks are ranked between 28th and 31st in all six indices. 23 spot disparity
3. Rangers - just too thin, ranked 25+ in all defensive measures with an old goaltender.
Teams Due to Rise:
1. Pittsburgh - good offensively, above average defensively but goaltending and shooting percentage is lagging. 13 spot disparity.
2. Philadelphia - very good defensively, but average netminding as per every year.
3. Vegas - single digit in every single category ranking and on a tear of late. Will be a top ten standings team soon.
Teams that Break the Model:
1. Carolina - when you're shooting percentage is breaking away from the pack on the down side you start to wonder why they lead the league in all three shot generation metrics. Fishy.
2. Toronto - unlikely to fall with high end forward skill and an all world goaltender. They don't need to control 60 minutes and generate favourable numbers to win.
3. Washington - throw back heavy team that may be seeing the league moving past them, but have the goaltending and skill to stick with the contenders.