Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
Bingo's method picked from 31 teams, not 20. A given team has only a 32.26% chance of being in the top 10 by a given measurement. If you pick by coin flip or any other random method, you should expect to get 3.226 of the top 10 teams right.
So yes, it's a much stronger correlation than you assume. And that's with the limitations imposed by small sample size, since standings this early in the season are not always reflective of a team's overall quality. A five-game winning or losing streak has a much larger effect in a 25-game sample than in an 82-game season.
|
It's an averaging list of counts that is supposed to create a discussion in a topic about the Flames being contenders.
It was never sanctioned as being
a) better than standings
b) better than goal differential
c) the future
d) a secret that only I know
It was meant to look at the possibility that some teams were playing better than their results showed through 1/3 of a season, teams playing worse than their results have been through 1/3 of a season, and of course some teams that have underlying stats that just don't make sense.
That's it.
I just don't get the need to attack these stats every time they are posted. They shouldn't scare you. They are harmless counts that may or not make sense.
It's better to have higher counts on generating things then it is in giving things up. That's all folks.
What made me bring it up was the mention of Buffalo as a contender as I don't buy that at this point in the season. Since I posted the ranks they've lost something like three out of four.
Early in the year the Canucks were winning nightly but had terrible underlying stats ... they've petered out as one would expect. Carolina continues to have great numbers but not great results which make them an interesting case.