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Originally Posted by Imported_Aussie
Who are Tkachuk's comparables for a contract?
Guys who had 2 good NHL years then PPG in final ELC year
Pastrnak? (40/6 = 6.667)
Barkov? (35.4/6 = 5.9) - also missed games due to injury (more than Tkachuk though)
Monahan had more in years 1-2, but hasn't hit PPG until now
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The other thing to look at is the other RFAs coming up this year - there are a ton of top-tier players in this year's batch: Matthews, Laine, Marner, Aho, Rantanen, Boeser, Connor, Point - whoever signs first could set the stage for the others to a certain extent (much like Scheifele/Monahan/MacKinnon all signed for low to mid-$6M AAV contracts in the same summer).
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I think if the team is sticking to the Gio Cap then even a 6 year deal might be hard to pull off.
A bridge only happens in a long holdout, so to me it is looking like:
5 years = low-mid 6s
6 years = high 6s
7 years = low 7s
8 years = mid 7s to 8
a 5 year deal buys one UFA year, expires same time as Backlund and Lindholm, 1 year after Monahan, 2 years after Gaudreau - so that fits the team's window, but risks a big salary jump after having to pay 2 top forwards, and potentially locking down another.
Longer than 5 years means that Tkachuk is essentially positioned as the next leader on the team, but limits cap during this window to try to open a longer window with whomever is retained up front, young D coming through, etc. spend 1-1.5M now to potentially save it later.
I would not be surprised to see a 5 year deal in the mid 6s that keeps the team together with cap flexibility short term, leading to a potential retool in 3-4 years if this group isn't contending
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There is precedence where Tkachuk's salary could remain lower than Gio's for as long as Gio's current contract lasts (3 years), then exceed it for the rest. This happened when Brodie re-signed his most recent contract and Gio was still making <$4M, so Brodie's first year of the salary was $3.9M and the rest of the years $4.8M. So I think a plausible contract could be:
$6.75M
$6.75M
$6.75M
$8M
$8M
$8M
$8M
$8M
8 years, total $60.25M for
$7.53M AAV. I think the $8M per year for post-Gio years could go +/- $0.5M based on how the rest of this year goes for Tkachuk.
I think this is pretty in line with the ranges you have - I agree that there is definitely the possibility that both Tkachuk and the Flames might want to go shorter though.