Who are Tkachuk's comparables for a contract?
Guys who had 2 good NHL years then PPG in final ELC year
Pastrnak? (40/6 = 6.667)
Barkov? (35.4/6 = 5.9) - also missed games due to injury (more than Tkachuk though)
Monahan had more in years 1-2, but hasn't hit PPG until now
I think if the team is sticking to the Gio Cap then even a 6 year deal might be hard to pull off. A bridge only happens in a long holdout, so to me it is looking like:
5 years = low-mid 6s
6 years = high 6s
7 years = low 7s
8 years = mid 7s to 8
a 5 year deal buys one UFA year, expires same time as Backlund and Lindholm, 1 year after Monahan, 2 years after Gaudreau - so that fits the team's window, but risks a big salary jump after having to pay 2 top forwards, and potentially locking down another.
Longer than 5 years means that Tkachuk is essentially positioned as the next leader on the team, but limits cap during this window to try to open a longer window with whomever is retained up front, young D coming through, etc. spend 1-1.5M now to potentially save it later.
I would not be surprised to see a 5 year deal in the mid 6s that keeps the team together with cap flexibility short term, leading to a potential retool in 3-4 years if this group isn't contending
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