Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterJoji
Just playing devils advocate here but lots of goalies have had questionable starts to their careers and turned out good.
Rask: similar numbers to Gillies in the AHL their first 2 seasons. 3.25 / .886 in his first few starts in the NHL, Gillies actually has better stats but Rask was already a bonafide backup by 24 years old while Gillies played 3 full seasons in college.
Hellebuyck: both were lights out in the NCAA (Hellebuyck with slightly better numbers) followed by average to good numbers in the AHL. Hellebuyck has a very good rookie season but then fell off his sophomore year, posting a nearly identical GAA compared to Gillies rookie year (2.88). Hellebuyck only did 2 years in the NCAA and is an established starter by 25 years old (Gillies is currently 24).
Varlamov: up and down numbers in the AHL to start his career, 2.40 -> 1.95 -> 3.36. His first full season in the NHL (24 years old) he posted 3.02 / .903.
Bishop: great 3 years in college, first few AHL years he was up and down, GAA anywhere from 2.26 to 2.81. Average NHL numbers his first few years, didn’t post good numbers until he was 26 years old.
Bobrovsky: okay numbers in the KHL, similar to Gillies in the AHL, poor to average rookie/sophomore years (2.59 -> 3.02), didn’t really establish himself until he was 25.
Holtby: good in the AHL, great in limited starts his first few years, big drop off in his 24 year old season (2.85 GAA) rebounded as a full time starter at 25 years old.
There still lots of potential in Gillies and Parsons.
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Goalies generally see "easier" workloads in the NHL in terms of chance quality, though the shot quality is obviously higher. The game is so different the numbers shouldn't be expected to mean much
Gillies never quite passed my eye test so I'm not overly optimistic there, but Parsons looks legit as they come and his numbers are probably a mirage. Rittich is another guy who really passed the eye test in the AHL and while his numbers backed it few seemed to buy the hype because they think there's a such thing as pedigree, when for goalies there really isn't (there was once a time Jonathan Quick was being developed to hopefully back up future starter Jonathan Bernier - ponder THAT)
Not to go off on a tangent but goaltending is a position where you're probably better off trusting in voodoo than trying to rationalize. Even Matt Murray is having a brutal season. Steve Mason was once a Calder winner, and then a few years later third in the NHL in SV% behind the league MVP and Dubnykbut here he is out of the league