One thing I like to look at when considering a contract for a player, be it UFA, RFA or a trade, is what a salary structure would look like in an ideal world. I think a team should spend money on top 3 centres, top 4 defensemen and a top goalie. After that, the remaining money goes to a couple top line wingers, and you fill out the rest of the roster with what's left.
Take away all the player names, and just try to make a lineup with just AAVs. Here is what mine looks like:
5 --- 8.5 --- 6.5 ---—20M for the top line
3.5 --- 6 --- 2.5 ---—12M for the 2nd line
2 --- 4 --- 1.5 ---— 7.5M for the 3rd line
1 --- 1.5 --- 1 ---— 3.5M for the 4th line
.75 --- .75 ---— 1.5M for the extra forwards
9 --- 5.5
4 --- 4.5
1.5 --- 2
1
6.5
1
44.5 for the forwards (14)
27.5 for the defense (7)
7.5 for the goalies (2)
79.5 for the 2018/19 cap limit
So this lineup goes right to the cap, and has nothing in reserve for rookie bonuses or buyouts. You can do your own one however you want, but the idea is if you want to spend more in one area, you have to take it out of another area.
The Flames save a bit by having Monahan make less than the elite centers out there, and by Gio making less than an elite #1 defensemen. They actually aren't too far off on the spending model above, overall. But next year they have to fit in Tkachuk's big raise, adding more to the total price of on the wing and on the second line (since Johnny is always going to be the top line LW). Where does that come from? It will have to be Center and other wingers.
Now try to fit in Nylander. If you want a 7.5 M winger, on top of Tkachuk's 7M+, Johnny at 6.75 and Neal at 5.75, where do you cut from to fit it in. Better hope you have a rookie goalie you can play for 1M, or multiple entry level defensemen that can play for a few years at low cost. But even if you have those, if they perform well, you'll need to resign them at huge raises.
Anyway, the point of this is if you think the Flames can afford Nylander, try fitting in four wingers making 6.75, 7, 7.5 and 5.75 and see what it does to your salary structure in other areas. Remember, all of those contracts are long term as well. Sure, the cap will likely rise next year, but there is also likely some amount of cap wasted on buyouts most years as well.
I just don't see any championship team having more than 2 top tier wingers, maybe 3 at most. If you get more than that, you can't afford top tier Defence and Centres and those are what you win with in the playoffs.
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