[DeluxeMoustache]

This leads to a question about what the whole value of the statistical analysis is, though

The high level argument (loosely framed, please don’t nitpick) is that shots are a proxy for possession / control, etc. People throw around save percentages like they apply more or less uniformly, and implicitly in the long run, proportionally share of possession translates to share of goals and share of wins.

Many of us have studied statistics to some extent and know that a good fit will have enough data points so that results can be expressed as accurate, say, within a certain margin or percentage, 19 times out of 20.

There are a lot of shots, sure, but few game results. Look at the Flames season. Apply analytics and compare to game results. Translating shot counts to wins has so many other contributing factors, and ultimately outliers in terms of results, that getting to a level of statistic significance is impossible.

If you have, say, 18 games and 4 outliers, the model is likely not good enough.