Quote:
Originally Posted by GullFoss
The six elements of the trade:
1) Brodano would be comparable to Gio-Hamilton
Over the past four games Gio-Brodie >>> Gio-Hamilton!
Gio 17-18 (actual): 13G, 25A, +0
Hamilton 17-18 (actual): 17G, 27A, +1
Gio 18-19 (projected): 12G, 70A, +59
Brodie 18-19 (projected): 0G, 29A, +35
2) Gio was the dominant partner in Gio-Hamilton
Looks like he was...
Gio 17-18: 13G, 25A, +0
Hamilton 17-18: 17G, 27A, +1
Gio 18-19: 2G, 14 A, +10
Hamilton 18-19: 2G, 3A, +0
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This is super interesting topic for me as it cuts to the heart of evaluation of a modern player with the advent of on ice shot metrics and what really matters.
Hamilton and Giordano were certainly a dominant pair. But trying to decide who carried who or if anyone was actually carried is a) difficult to do and b) somewhat dangerous from a homer vs non homer standpoint.
When you look at shot metrics along, that is corsi events I don't think it can be challenged that having Hamilton in the pairing will always drive up the CF and with that the CF% for both he and his partner.
But does that matter? I player like Michael Stone has very low shot metrics for, but also low shot metrics against and certainly low scoring chances against. He's an old school defenseman, but his corsi will always suffer because he contributes nothing to the "for" for himself or his defense partner.
With Hamilton everything is towards the net, much like Frolik up front, who plays a role in driving up the 3M shot metrics every year despite not having a big shot or shooting when he's in a position to actually score.
So we now have three pairings to look at, all using this and last year's data.
Slavin/Hamilton
Giordano/Hamilton
Giordan/Brodie
The Slavin/Hamilton pairing would have most don them the best pairing with a cursory look as they have 63.2 CF% as a pairing, which dwarfs both Hamilton/Giordano 58% and Giordano/Brodie 61.5%.
But what makes that up?
Slavin/Hamilton are 86.4 CF/60 a huge shot for metric, which drives their percentage but they give up more as the Giordano/Brodie pairing is giving up 43.8 shot attempts against per 60 minutes compared to Slavin/Hamilton who give up 50.3 ... Giordano and Brodie are the better "defensive" pairing thus far (early).
Last year the Giordano/Hamilton pairing gave up 51.5 CA/60, so Giordano/Brodie are still the better pairing in prevention.
Simple counting stats has the Slavin/Hamilton pairing -1 on the season, in actual goal production five on five. Last year Giordano/Hamilton finished +5, while the Giordano/Brodie pairing are already +9 this year which is crazy and likely unsustainable.
Is that bad luck for the Carolina pair so far?
Almost need to look at high danger splits for that.
Slavin/Hamilton generate 18 high danger chances per 60 and give up 13, or +5
Giordano/Hamilton had 13.5 for and 8.4 against, or +5
Giordano/Brodie so far are +15 and 12 against, or +3
Really points to the pairing of Giordano/Hamilton last year as being elite, but on what they generated and what they gave up. So far this year Giordano/Brodie are better defensively, and Slavin/Hamilton are off the charts offensively.
Finally ... heat maps. The eye test always said to me (could be biased) that Giordano did more of the work in their own zone.
Last year ... Giordano/Hamilton
Hard not to notice the very blue section on the left side of the zone, and the red section coming off the right half wall. Looks like the Calgary cage is being defended more effectively on Giordano's side.
This year ... Slavin/Hamilton
Less contract this year for Hamilton, as Slavin has a pretty bright red attack spot off his half wall. Hamilton though has more red to the high slot than Slavin, and more red to the right of the net than Slavin to the left
Finally this year ... Giordano/Brodie
Literally the left side (Giordano) is a no fly zone for the opposition with the only shot attempts coming from Brodie's side. Probably the most contrasting of the three with Giordano carrying it.
Giordano carrying Hamilton defensively? Hamilton pushing Gio's offensive numbers up equally?