My current instinct is that the plebiscite loses. The main factor being the demographic split in polling on the topic - No skews older, Yes skews younger. Older citizens vote in high proportions, younger people do not - especially not in mid term special plebiscite type vote.
The late nature of the deal is double edged - in one hand there is a wave you could ride to a win on a short time frame, on the other hand, it will be viewed as hasty by some.
My record in predicting results isn't very good, though.
__________________
Trust the snake.
|