Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
I don't think it is that simple. The Flames were a high-possession hockey team both on the road and at home, and their record in games in which they outshot and were outshot-by the opposing teams were nearly identical:
Outshot — 14–12
Outshoot — 21–23
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There is definitely some merit to his claim:
At home Smith faced 26.9 shots against / 60 with -0.87 deltaSV%
On road Smith faced 34.2 shots against /60 with +3.05 deltaSV%
According to expected SV%, the Flames didn't necessarily give up worse chances at home, either:
Smith
Home xSV%: 90.98 *1917 home minutes
Home SV%: 90.1%
Road xSV%: 90.61 *1273 road minutes
Road SV%: 93.66
He wasn't alone, as Rittich too struggled at home while being relatively solid on the road
Rittich:
Home xSV%: 90.81 *only 161 home minutes played though
Home SV%: 85.51
Road xSV%: 91.2 *847 road minutes
Road SV%: 91.2
Rittich Home SA/60: 25.7
Rittich Road SA/60: 31.3
If I had to guess, the real reason is that the Flames are a team whose forwards, backcheck poorly, and so they're better off making saves with everyone already established in the zone able to force opposing shooters to rush their shots. Give any shooter time and space and they'll bury a shot on a goalie. On the road you concede zone time but play tighter defensively.