The way I see it, a No majority will kill it, but a Yes majority won't necessarily not kill it.
Keep in mind that all the previous votes from Council have been close, mostly 9-6 or 10-5 votes to continue. All it takes to stop it is 2 Councillors flipping, and at least two of the previous Yes votes have indicated that they won't support continuing the process if there's a No majority.
All it takes is for 2 of: Woolley, Sutherland, Carra, Colley-Urquhart, Jones, Davison, Keating, Chahal, or Nenshi to switch their votes and it will be dead.
Regardless of your opinions of Nenshi and any thoughts that he'll push this through no matter what, I don't think he'll be able to prevent at least two of those other Councillors from flipping if there is a No majority vote. If two flip, I think they all will because I don't think anyone wants to be seen as the person who went against the will of the people and still lost.
On the other hand, I think with even an overwhelming Yes majority vote, we wouldn't see people like Farrell, Farkas, or Chu switch sides. They'll gladly stick to their guns and proclaim "I told you so" anytime anything Olympic-related hits any snags.
As far as the whole "legacy" issue is concerned. No one remembers the person who wrote the cheque. Everyone remembers the person who cut the ribbon. Which mayor do people associate with the Peace Bridge? The one who was mayor when it was approved, or the one who was mayor when it opened?
I will be extremely surprised if Nenshi is still the mayor in February 2026. There are still two municipal elections between now and then. I'll be surprised if he runs in the next election, let alone the one in 2025. Unless he is still mayor in 2026, the Olympics won't be considered his legacy any more than the 1988 Games are Ross Alger's legacy.
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