Pot (like alcohol) is a 20/80 business. 20 per cent of users are responsible for 80 per cent of consumption. Of course your 42 year old occasional smoker will go the legal retail route. But together all those casuals only account for 20 per cent of sales. While heavy users already have ready access to pot, or else they wouldn't be heavy users.
The grey market will no longer be an option - the police are
shutting those operations down.. There's too much invested in legal (and tax-paying) businesses that have jumped through all the licensing hoops to allow illegal (but previously tolerated) operations to undercut them.
So the choices will be brick and mortar retail or black market.
The black market will still be used by:
* Heavy users who are price-sensitive.
* Users who are under 21/18.
* Those who won't have a legal store in their community, whether it's a small rural community or one of the larger municipalities that won't allow cannabis sales.
The experts - the legal and economic wonks who study this stuff - all say the black market in Canada
isn't going anywhere. It will always be cheaper than the legal stuff, and it will continue to be more convenient for many users: the Terrys of today offer home delivery faster than you can get a pizza, while the whole of Ontario will still only have 150 stores by the end of 2020. I'd wager five years from now, at least a third of the week smoked in Canada will still be sold by Terrys.