Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
That's honestly been the biggest debate I've been embroiled in over the past 6 months.
I do think the Oilers had their share of misfortune last year. I also think some of the systems deployed created shots that weren't as dangerous as others from the same area.
One thing I'd look at though is out right counts instead of % for powerplay data. All powerplays out chance the opposition, so I think counts out of 60 pp minutes mean more.
The Flames had the 2nd highest high danger shot attempt per 60 minutes of powerplay time. The Oilers 15th.
The Flames had the 7th highest scoring chance per 60 minutes of PP time, the Oilers 9th.
Where the Oilers stand out is high danger shooting percentage ... last place at 11.85%, the Flames not much better at 13.3%. The league average is 16.5%.
The "maybe they shot too much from bad areas" look ... Edmonton was 10th, Calgary 11th at low danger attempts per 60 minutes. A bad shot likely hurts you as you turn the puck over.
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Thanks for your thoughts on that. I think it has to be a combination of poor play and poor luck for both teams.
I admit I still maybe don't understand or trust high danger shot attempt data.
If you want to use rates Calgary was 28th in goals for/60. Is that really possible if they are 2nd in the league at creating high danger shots per 60?
If that's correct then specials teams are essentially entirely luck based and I don't think that can be true.
Perhaps the errors in the data get exaggerated when you take all shots and then throw out everything except whatever small percentage make up high danger chances, because they never seem to pass the sniff test when I look at high danger chance data.
It seems so random.