Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaskal
League average shooting % is around 9.1%. Here are the 2017-18 Flames:
Michael Frolik: 5.2
Matt Stajan: 5.7
Sam Bennett: 5.8
Curtis Lazar: 5.9
Troy Brouwer: 6.2
Michael Stone: 6.6
Travis Hamonic: 6.8
Mikael Backlund: 7.0
Mark Jankowski: 7.2
Brett Kulak: 7.2
Garnet Hathaway: 7.7
Dougie Hamilton: 7.9
Mark Giordano: 8.1
TJ Brodie: 8.1
Matthew Tkachuk: 8.5
Micheal Ferland: 10.1
Johnny Gaudreau: 10.4
Sean Monahan: 10.7
And here are the newcomers:
Noah Hanifin 7.6
Derek Ryan 8.3
Elias Lindholm 8.7
James Neal 11.5
If just half of the sub 0.091 shooters increase back towards the mean, we should see quite a bit more offense even if Gaudreau-Monahan-Neal regress a bit.
|
Not really sure how constructive this is to compare to the league average, the comparison should be to their career average, and some of those comparisons shouldn't be made like in the case of Stajan for instance. The wheels clearly fell off for him last season, and now he's in Europe.
Stone for example has a career shooting percentage of 4.4 and shot 3.1 last year, but he has some outlier seasons at the start of the career.
Lazar has a career shooting percentage of 5.7, so expecting him to hit 9 or 10% is a big ask.
Backlund can definitely improve his shooting percentage,
Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
As is often pointed out, not all players are created equal in their ability to create goals, which is why some players like Neal and Monahan have historically high shooting percentages. But what that breakdown does show is a significant drop in career-average shooting percentages for an inordinately high number of players, including Frolik, Bennett, Brodie and Backlund.
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Strange Brew
Yikes. If league average is 9.1, I don’t see a ton of good news in these numbers. It’s a team made up of poor finishers.
Interesting though that the best finisher of the group played in a different system than the Flames/Hurricanes possession focused systems.
So are these teams just unlucky or are the systems they deploy likely to yield low shooting percentages?
|
My impression is that shooting percentages were down largely because shots for were up.
TJ Brodie saw a decline in shooting percentage from 7.7% to 3.4% from 2016/2017 to 2017/2018, but he saw an increase of 40 more shots as compared to the season previous.
In Backlund's final season under hartley, he took 155 shots through 82 games, converting on 13.5%.
Last season, Backlund took 214 shots, nearly 40% more shots, and converted on 6.5%. He scored 2 less points last season as compared to his last season under Hartley.
The Flames were taking a larger volume of lower percentage shots as a group which I think is the greatest contributing factor to their lower shooting percentages.
In the last season under hartley the Flames were 20th in Shots For Per Game with 29.2, basically sandwiched between 23rd place and 14th.
Last season under GG, the Flames were 6th overall in shots for with 33.6, sandwiched between 9th and 4th (carolina).
Hartley's last year outscored GG's last year by 13 goals. Hartley's last year allowed 14 more goals than GG's last season.
It's not apples to apples, but I think it's a pretty good illustration that there was a finite amount of talent on the roster for both coaches that could be deployed in different ways and essentially yield the same results.