Quote:
Originally Posted by wretched34
This is where I think advanced stats become more about spreadsheets than the actual game.
Those stats say Draisaitl would put up an average of 48 points per season at 5 on 5 without McDavid, and an average of 21 points on the powerplay (which he plays with McDavid). Making him a 69 point per year center. Which hey, is a very solid top line center.
Now, my issue is, last year, Draisaitl put up 70 points, and the year before he had 77. All the while, more than half his even strength ice time was with McDavid, and the vast majority of his PP time was with McDavid. So how can you say Draisaitl is a 69 point player without McDavid, when he's a 74 point player with McDavid? Sometimes real stats need to be considered over "Fancy" stats.
Draisaitl without McDavid is an Average top 2 Center. He hasn't proven otherwise.
And to be completely honest, I wouldn't be surprised if RNH becomes a 70 point player with McDavid, he made Maroon a near 30 goal scorer...
The McDavid effect is real. It's not rose colored glasses.
I guess the value to another team depends on the position you need to fill.
Want a solid 50+ point 2 way center, or a 50+ point offensive center? Do you want to pay less for the more complete player, or more for the unproven player.
|
Agree to disagree I suppose. I don't see why it is considered a fault that he clicks with McDavid when Hall, Eberle, and others didn't put up outlandish numbers with him. Sometimes chemistry is important. We will see this year if RNH has it.
And these aren't fancy stats, they are hard numbers and point totals. I'm not looking at possession or shot metrics or high danger chances. Sure he played with McDavid on the power play, but they also had a god awful power play last year. Do you subtract 20 points from Monahan because he plays with Gaudreau?
No matter how you slice it, calling Draisaitl a 50 point player is disingenuous at best. His points per 60 is higher with McDavid obviusly, but it isn't a dramatic difference. In reality there is no way he will be traded for an unsigned Karlsson or be deemed less valuable than RNH.