Quote:
Originally Posted by bax
Don't get me wrong, I despise the Oilers as much as anybody, but I won't let rose colored glasses prevent me from accurately judging players. If you think RNH is more valuable than Draisaitl then I just think you are flat out wrong.
25 year old center
career high of 56 points 4 seasons ago
6"00 191 pounds
Not bad defensively, but prone to being pushed off the puck and out muscled down low
22 year old center
career high of 77 points 2 seasons ago
6'02 215 pounds
Not the best skater, but big body that can protect the puck and not get pushed around
Which player looks more valuable here? And I understand the McDavid inflation, but even taking that into consideration there is no way Draisaitl is less valuable than RNH.
If Ottawa could secure a core piece like Draisaitl locked up long term for Karlsson (a soon to be UFA) that would be a massive win. When was the last time a trade like that happened? Unfortunately for Ottawa they are most likely looking at getting a mediocre roster player, some high picks, and some strong prospects. It's just the nature of trading a soon to be UFA.
Draisaitl, although less productive without McDavid still put up 2.27 P/60 at 5 on 5. I don't know who he was playing with, but if it wasn't McDavid I can't imagine his line mates were very good. That is roughly 48 even strength points. Over the last two seasons he has averaged 21 points on the power play per season so add that to his even strength total and we are looking at 69 points.
(credit to JoeThorntonsRooster from HF on the stats)
69 points isn't "elite" but it's still very good production. So going around calling him a 50 point center really isn't accurate at all.
Look, I hope the Oilers fall apart like they do every year, but I can clearly see that Draisaitl and his contract are not what is wrong with that team. It's their poorly constructed defense, their lack of forward depth, their slow and ineffective bottom rotation forwards, and terrible special teams.
Ottawa would love to get a player like Draisaitl in a Karlsson deal and he is quite clearly more valuable than RNH.
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This is where I think advanced stats become more about spreadsheets than the actual game.
Those stats say Draisaitl would put up an average of 48 points per season at 5 on 5 without McDavid, and an average of 21 points on the powerplay (which he plays with McDavid). Making him a 69 point per year center. Which hey, is a very solid top line center.
Now, my issue is, last year, Draisaitl put up 70 points, and the year before he had 77. All the while, more than half his even strength ice time was with McDavid, and the vast majority of his PP time was with McDavid. So how can you say Draisaitl is a 69 point player without McDavid, when he's a 74 point player with McDavid? Sometimes real stats need to be considered over "Fancy" stats.
Draisaitl without McDavid is an Average top 2 Center. He hasn't proven otherwise.
And to be completely honest, I wouldn't be surprised if RNH becomes a 70 point player with McDavid, he made Maroon a near 30 goal scorer...
The McDavid effect is real. It's not rose colored glasses.
I guess the value to another team depends on the position you need to fill.
Want a solid 50+ point 2 way center, or a 50+ point offensive center? Do you want to pay less for the more complete player, or more for the unproven player.