When the last place teams have recently finished with between 20-25 games, it doesn't take much of an anomaly to "exceed" expectations and finish outside of a 'lottery position.' A hot goalie for a month period is all it takes to stop you from finishing deadlast even with the bonafide worst place roster. The issue for the Senators is there are a lot of contenders for bad teams this year. Can't fault them for keeping a guaranteed top 5 pick over a literal lottery chance.
The Canucks had 30 wins last year with the Sedins. Looks like Boeser will have to carry that team on his back just to finish on par with last year - and that could be problematic given his back injury
. No one would be surprised to see the Canucks finish last place. Things could go right, with Petersson and friends, and they might exceed expectations sure.
Canadiens had under 30 wins. They lost a 20 goal scorer in Galchenyuk, might trade their best skater in Pacioretty. Another regular performance from Price and they're at the bottom of the league. Of course we've seen Price carry that team far further than it should have gone before.
Detroit had 2 more wins than the Senators last year. If Zetterberg doesn't come back that's the last of the old guard and a sign of the changing times. Larkin and Mantha are some solid young players that could be supplemented by the vets and other young players but no one is expecting them to make much noise this season.
And then you have the New York teams. The Rangers are going scorched earth on their team in a very publicized rebuilding period. The Tavaresless Islanders could easily flounder without him.
Of course you always have the surprise teams, both good and bad, that no one sees finishing where they do when the season starts.
Finally, you have the standard Buffalo, Arizona, Edmonton teams that always seem to defy expectations and somehow always #### up their rebuild.
Missing out on Hughes would be, ah, huge. But it's so far from a guarantee. You would need to be a gambling man to give up on the fourth overall because the math doesn't back up that move. This isn't like when the Devils held onto their 29th pick.